Posted To: The Green Home

I'm more cranky than usual and already regarding red and green as the world's worst pairing since Jon and Kate. It must be Christmas. That gets the bah humbug out of the way - if only for the moment - so here are the first of our 2009 green (the red will be your bank balance) ideas for the upcoming holiday. Today's selections are for the sports and outdoor lover in your life. New Balance Trail 20 running shoes are the first green shoes in NB's line. The shoe is designed to reduce waste in manufacturing and the materials themselves are largely recycled. The outsole is rice husk rubber, the insert and upper are both natural and recycled. All synthetics on the shoe are made from recycled materials and the adhesives are water-based. The shoe is light weight (8.6 oz.) and available...(read more)

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

I was both happy and sad upon my nightly review of the most recent blog post. I like to read it even if I've written it, to assess what else might be needed on the day... I was sad to see there's not much left to discuss and I know that you'll all be sad to see me type less, but I was happy that AQ related the content exactly as I would, and that my Thanksgiving break could start that much earlier as I'd likely be able to finish up early. So if you haven't read MBS Afternoon , do it. That said, I'll just give whoever is interested a quick run down of my charts for the evening. Certainly some epic things happening, but plenty of counterpoints as well. Aren't there always?! 2 Day 4.5 MBS Other than the fact MBS closed at another multi-month high (albeit by a scant...(read more)

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

Last week the 10yr TSY note bounced around between 3.32% and 3.37%. Early on this week, that range was broken as 10yr note yields tested 3.42%. However, as positional support remained in tact, higher yields and lower prices drew out bargain buyers which quickly pushed yields back into last week's range. This is considered a range breakdown correction. Spurred on by momentum, traders pushed yields back to 3.32%, the lower limits of last week's range. This highly trafficked pivot point, which failed to break three times last week, was broken today. The 10yr TSY note is currently trading +0-11 at 100-30 yielding 3.264%. The question is now...will the range breakout fail just as the range breakdown did earlier this week? As the year draws nearer to a close, the long end of the yield curve...(read more)

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

YIELDS High 2.835 pct Median 2.750 pct Low 2.650 pct PRICE/ACCEPTANCES Price 99.463748 Accepted at high 87.98 pct Bid-to-cover ratio 2.76 AMOUNTS TENDERED AND ACCEPTED (dollars) Total accepted 32,000,045,800 Total public bids tendered 88,265,357,800 Competitive bids accepted 31,976,388,000 Noncompetitive bids accepted 23,657,800 Fed add-ons 960,931,500 Primary Dealer Tendered 57,753,000,000 Primary Dealer Accepted 8,922,950,000 Primary Dealer Hit Rate 15.45% Primary Award Overall Award 27.88% Direct Bidder Tendered 4,730,000,000 Direct Bidder Accepted 3,073,000,000 Direct Bidder Hit Rate 64.97% Direct Bidder Overall Award 9.60% Indirect Bidder Tendered 25,758,700,000 Indirect Bidder Accepted 19,980,438,000 Indirect Bidder Hit Rate 77.57% Indirect Bidder Overall Award 62.44% The initial reaction...(read more)

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Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Rates rallied yesterday following a strong 5 year note auction. This helped pave the way for higher MBS prices and lower mortgage rates. By day's end MBS were testing historic price highs and lenders were repricing for the better. To remind readers, as MBS prices move higher, lenders are able to pass along lower mortgage rates. While the economic calendar is very busy today, this will be last the session of the week in which economic data is released as markets will be closed on Thursday and open for a half day on Friday. Because there was so much to absorb this morning, I am going to do a quick run through of all the data. This morning the Mortgage Bankers’ Association released their weekly applications index which tracks the weekly change in the amount of loan applications at major...(read more)

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Posted To: MND NewsWire

The Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development today released New Home Sales survey data for October 2009. The survey is primarily based on a sample of houses selected from building permits. Since a “sale” is defined as a deposit taken or sales agreement signed, this can occur prior to a permit being issued. Changes in sales price data reflect changes in the distribution of houses by region, size, etc., as well as changes in the prices of houses with identical characteristics. It takes four months to establish a trend of new home purchases Last month, single family new home sales fell for the first time since March, snapping a five month trend of increasing sales. The pace of new homes sales was 402,000 sales per year, well below economist's expectations...(read more)

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Posted To: Community Commentary

I recently had coffee with a branch manager who is associated with a local retail mortgage bank. He met with me to discuss originator recruiting strategies. Here's how the opening dialogue went: Me : “So how do you currently go about looking for loan officers? Do you have a recruiting strategy?” Branch Manager: “My strategy is to find experienced loan officers who generate loans”. Me: “You and everyone else want to do that. Why would a top producer join your company? What’s so special about your operation? Your approach sounds like a pipe dream, not a strategy.” Branch Manager : “Well, we have good processing and a well furnished office.” Me : “Ok, without a recruiting strategy, you’ll be cycling people through your shop...(read more)

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Posted To: MND NewsWire

The Mortgage Bankers Association today released the Weekly Survey on Mortgage Application Activity for the week ending November 20, 2009. The Mortgage Banker's application survey covers over 50% of all US residential mortgage loan applications taken by mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The data gives economists a look into consumer demand for mortgage loans. A rising trend of mortgage applications indicates home buying interest is increasing, a positive for the housing industry and economy as a whole. Furthermore, in a low mortgage rate environment, a trend of increased refinance applications implies consumers are seeking out a lower monthly payments which can result in increased disposable income and therefore more money to spend on discretionary items...or just an opportunity...(read more)

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Posted To: MND NewsWire

Activity in Fannie Mae's portfolios declined according to most metrics during the month of October as compared to September. Delinquency rates reported, however, continued to increase. In their monthly summary, Fannie Mae reported the corporation's Book of Business declined at a compound annualized rate of (3.1) percent during the month. The current Book of Business is $3.23 trillion, an increase 4.8 percent thus far in 2009. The retained portfolio declined 27.8 percent to $771.5 billion during October. The portfolio has declined 2.4 percent thus far in 2009. The principal decline was in non-Fannie Mae Agency Securities which dropped from $60.6 billion to $49.4 billion. Mortgage loans increased by about $5 billion and non-Agency securities decreased a little over $5 billion. Fannie...(read more)

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Posted To: MBS Commentary

As has been very much the custom recently, Tsy's are having in "inside day" so far as ranges narrow into ready position before important data. If you need the refresher, "inside" refers to today's trading range lying inside yesterday's range. That generally makes for the collision of competing trends at some point and today is no exception. If the upper trendline on the MBS portion of the chart seems aggressively sloped, keep in mind that the chart scaling is a bit compacted in order to fit two days of prices on to the chart. Fairly regular waves of chopatility leave us exactly unchanged at the moment with the 4.5 coupon at 102-09. Treasuries are worse off with the 10yr price down 10 ticks and the yield up to 3.338. Ha! If yield RISING to 3.338 is the worst news...(read more)

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